Hi all, I have a few things to go over today, so bear with me.
First of all, to try and keep all the data from this test as stable as possible, I have decided to eliminate non expiry days from testing, since I’m trading day of expiry options. This leaves us with only Monday, Wednesday, and Friday data (and the occasional Tuesday or Thursday that has a day of expiry).
Secondly, I want to note that when determining Entry price for data, I take the open price of the option at the candle AFTER the alert, for the first available Out of the Money Option. For Exit price, I take the middle price between when the next alert shows (or the end of day) and the high after entry was taken (as best as possible, a certain amount of estimation due to bid/ask gaps must be used). This allows for some amount of human error and a more realistic average gain. (It is not reasonable to take the max possible gain and use that for data.) If an alert is given with less than 20 minutes to go in the trading day, it will be omitted, at this point it is strictly a lotto.
Thirdly, Eric and I came to a consensus to give 100 days of data: thus, there will be 100 days of testing, at that point we will have sufficient data to justify average percentage gains and what it has done for my overall profits. As we are only using 3 days a week of data, this test will end up being around 35 weeks long. Which leads me to my next point: there are days I may have to take off, on those days the data will still be posted, but obviously I won’t have taken a trade. Considering this will be a long test, I’m not concerned about that.
Lastly, I’m on vacation this week, thus you’ll notice a lack of trading on my part, but once again, I’ll still be posting the data. Today I was actually traveling during market hours, so I didn’t have the option to take a position. Friday it’s unlikely I’ll trade, but I will be watching some of the day.
Okay, that’s all for testing notes, there shouldn’t be any other alterations going forward, I just wanted to clear this all up.
As for today’s data: it is as follows:
So, 2 sell alerts and 2 buy alerts today. You’ll notice Market God missed the opening move (which was a continuation from the buy alert yesterday), and the $15 drop from highs: it is worth noting that if an alert (on the 5 min) is posted late in a trading day and it gaps up in that direction, Market God has a tough time deciphering when to send the countering alert (you can see that in today’s drop, it was a solid opportunity for puts, but as there was no alert I stayed out). This isn’t really a big deal, it’s a rare occurrence, but it’s definitely worth noting.
The first sell alert today would not have been confirmed by my setup, and would have yielded about a 30% loss.
The first buy alert had a much better result. It would have qualified for a trade using my setup, and would have yielded a 115% gain.
The second sell alert was also confirmed by my setup, and would have yielded 111%.
The last alert, a buy alert, would have lost about 45%, given a closing price of zero and a max gain of 10%. Using this alert to illustrate how I’m coming up with my data, as mentioned in notes above: (10% + -100%) / 2 = -45%
Okay, so with all that being said, here is the summary for today:
Summary 7/10/2019 (Total 6 days):
Total Market God Buy Alerts: 2 (13)
Total Market God Sell Alerts: 2 (13)
Total all alerts: 4 (26)
Buy alerts confirmed by Nathan’s strategy: 1 (5)
Sell alerts confirmed by Nathan’s strategy: 1 (2)
All alerts confirmed by Nathan’s strategy: 2 (7)
Buy alert average hypothetical profit: 35.0% (55.3%)
Sell alert average hypothetical profit: 40.5% (23.2%)
All alerts hypothetical profit: 37.8% (39.3%)
Buy alert average real profit for day: N/A
Sell alert average real profit for day: N/A
Trades taken: 0 (3)
Total Profit: $0.0 ($260.06)
Account Value: $1,760.06